BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Blue Heron In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Boreal Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-60%Since 1968
110Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Great Blue Heron has fallen sharply in Boreal Hardwood Transition: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.00–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±195.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029
0.31Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.9895% range
±195.2%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.360.001.0
20260.350.001.0
20270.330.001.0
20280.320.000.99
20290.310.000.98

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
BemidjiMINNESOTA81980
IronsMICHIGAN41989
Hart LakeMINNESOTA42009
MontrealWISCONSIN42012
Bear LakeMICHIGAN32022
CohassetMINNESOTA32015
WarroadMINNESOTA32000
HermanMICHIGAN22015
CunardMICHIGAN22014
GilchristMICHIGAN22016
Brush CreekMICHIGAN21992
Red OakMICHIGAN22012
CathroMICHIGAN22016
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA22023
BrainerdMINNESOTA22024
Sawbill CampMINNESOTA21995
BagleyMINNESOTA22003
GlendaleMINNESOTA22018
Cass LakeMINNESOTA22012
Nett LakeMINNESOTA22014
Tamarac NwrMINNESOTA22024
Land O LakesWISCONSIN22016
CouderayWISCONSIN22019
GilmanWISCONSIN22019
IrmaWISCONSIN22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.