BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Partridge In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGame birds

Gray Partridge in Prairie Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-69%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Partridge has fallen sharply in Prairie Hardwood Transition: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Gray Partridge In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Partridge in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Partridge in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.010.000.10
20270.010.000.10
20280.010.000.10
20290.000.000.10
20300.000.000.09

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Gray Partridge in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beaver DamWISCONSIN81993
Whitewater 2MINNESOTA42015
Money CreekMINNESOTA31993
Rolling PrWISCONSIN31974
GuilfordILLINOIS21989
Cherry ValILLINOIS21992
FestinaIOWA22025
ChatfieldMINNESOTA21986
KnappMINNESOTA21983
EdwardsMINNESOTA21992
New LondonMINNESOTA22007
ManitowocWISCONSIN21981
Newburg CrnsWISCONSIN21978
Pt WashingtnWISCONSIN22002
Hazel GreenWISCONSIN22013
WiotaWISCONSIN21990
MillvilleMINNESOTA12012
St StephenMINNESOTA11973
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA12024
ManawaWISCONSIN11986
OmroWISCONSIN11982
ClintonvilleWISCONSIN11974
CascoWISCONSIN12000
N FreedomWISCONSIN11984
BrownsvilleWISCONSIN11993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.