BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Partridge In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGame birds

Gray Partridge in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 348% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+348%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Partridge has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 348% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Gray Partridge In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Partridge in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 64% by 2030 — from 0.64 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-64%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Partridge in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 64% by 2030 — from 0.64 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.230.000.65
20270.230.000.65
20280.230.000.65
20290.230.000.65
20300.230.000.64

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Gray Partridge in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA112025
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA112024
CircleMONTANA82013
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA82025
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA72025
LeroyMONTANA52025
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA42025
HighwoodMONTANA32023
ShawmutMONTANA32025
FlatwillowMONTANA32007
LindsayMONTANA32024
Roosevelt PkNORTH-DAKOTA32017
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA32022
GolvaNORTH-DAKOTA32023
VolunteerSOUTH-DAKOTA32025
Eagle ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA32006
RoyMONTANA22024
BrusettMONTANA21994
SavageMONTANA21993
Two DotMONTANA22024
AlbionMONTANA21997
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA22024
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA22025
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA22024
LaplantSOUTH-DAKOTA21975

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.