BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Partridge In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Gray Partridge in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 293% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+293%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Partridge has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 293% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Gray Partridge In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Partridge in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 67% by 2029 — from 0.59 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-67%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Partridge in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 67% by 2029 — from 0.59 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.200.000.61
20260.200.000.61
20270.200.000.61
20280.200.000.60
20290.200.000.60

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Gray Partridge in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA122024
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA112024
CircleMONTANA82013
HighwoodMONTANA32023
FlatwillowMONTANA32007
Reed PointMONTANA32012
LindsayMONTANA32024
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA32000
Roosevelt PkNORTH-DAKOTA32017
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA32022
GolvaNORTH-DAKOTA32023
LodgepoleSOUTH-DAKOTA32017
Eagle ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA32006
RoyMONTANA22024
BrusettMONTANA21994
SavageMONTANA21993
Two DotMONTANA22024
ShawmutMONTANA21990
AlbionMONTANA21997
Wheat BasinMONTANA22024
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA22024
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA22024
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA22022
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA22017
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA22022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.