BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Kingbird In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainAerial insectivores

Gray Kingbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-73%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gray Kingbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Gray Kingbird In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Kingbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±173.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±173.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Kingbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±173.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.04
20260.010.000.04
20270.010.000.04
20280.010.000.04
20290.010.000.03

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Gray Kingbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dauphin IsALABAMA21988
Alabama PtALABAMA21996
Alabama Pt 2ALABAMA22015
BettsFLORIDA21994
Dauphin Is 2ALABAMA12011
Ft Waltn BchFLORIDA12011
Port St JoeFLORIDA12004
SteinhatcheeFLORIDA11997
Ft GadsdenFLORIDA11987
Santa RosaFLORIDA11992
Alligator PtFLORIDA12024
Cross CityFLORIDA12015
St Vincent IFLORIDA12002

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.