BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Hawk In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Gray Hawk in Sierra Madre Occidental has surged: up 316% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+316%Since 1970
9Routes In Region
42Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Gray Hawk has surged in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 316% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Hawk in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.90 (95% range 0.38–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2029
0.90Projected 2029 index
0.38–1.495% range
±39.1%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.830.311.4
20260.850.331.4
20270.860.341.4
20280.880.361.4
20290.900.381.4

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Gray Hawk in Sierra Madre Occidental.
PomereneARIZONA92024
PatagoniaARIZONA62024
AmadoARIZONA62023
Peña BlancaARIZONA52024
RedingtonARIZONA52023
Sunizona 2ARIZONA32023
Skull ValleyARIZONA12024
SahuaritaARIZONA12023
PortalARIZONA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.