BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Hawk In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalBirds of prey

Gray Hawk in Sierra Madre Occidental has surged: up 299% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+299%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Hawk has surged in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 299% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Gray Hawk In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Hawk in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 0.81 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.40–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.91Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.40–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Hawk in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 0.81 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.40–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.850.331.4
20270.860.351.4
20280.880.361.4
20290.900.381.4
20300.910.401.4

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Gray Hawk in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AmadoARIZONA72025
PomereneARIZONA62025
PatagoniaARIZONA62025
Sunizona 2ARIZONA32023
Peña BlancaARIZONA22025
Skull ValleyARIZONA12024
RedingtonARIZONA12025
SahuaritaARIZONA12023
PortalARIZONA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.