BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Catbird In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

Gray Catbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

-39%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gray Catbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.19
20260.070.000.19
20270.070.000.19
20280.070.000.18
20290.070.000.18

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
StowellTEXAS62009
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA22018
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA11982
CreoleLOUISIANA11971
HackberryLOUISIANA11985
EstherLOUISIANA12011
KaplanLOUISIANA12023
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA11996
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA12024
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA12017
WoodlawnLOUISIANA12018
WinnieTEXAS12016
KatyTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.