BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Catbird In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

Gray Catbird in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

-68%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

Gray Catbird In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±163%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±163%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±163%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.070.000.19
20250.070.000.19
20260.070.000.19
20270.070.000.19
20280.070.000.19

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Myakka HeadFLORIDA22008
ChildsFLORIDA21997
RomeoFLORIDA11993
St AugustineFLORIDA11986
San AntonioFLORIDA11988
BelmoreFLORIDA11996
ScottsmoorFLORIDA12008
KenansvilleFLORIDA12019
BrowardFLORIDA11967
Ft MccoyFLORIDA12005
NobletonFLORIDA11994
St LucieFLORIDA12017
CroomFLORIDA12017
Green SwampFLORIDA12011
Holey LandFLORIDA12023
Babcock RnchFLORIDA11989
Merritt IslFLORIDA12011
ChassahowitzFLORIDA12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.