BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Catbird In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

Gray Catbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has risen sharply: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+61%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
164Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has risen sharply in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Gray Catbird In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 20 (95% range 18–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
18–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 20 (95% range 18–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025201822
2026201822
2027201822
2028201823
2029201823

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Gray Catbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WarrenCONNECTICUT1372011
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT912024
BrocktonMASSACHUSETTS752019
PomonaNEW-JERSEY702024
Wellfleet 2MASSACHUSETTS652024
MarionMASSACHUSETTS622024
NewburyportMASSACHUSETTS572022
ShannockRHODE-ISLAND572024
ShermanCONNECTICUT562019
WillimanticCONNECTICUT542018
Gay HeadMASSACHUSETTS542024
WinslowNEW-JERSEY532024
S BarreMASSACHUSETTS512024
Long HillCONNECTICUT502019
Mid HaddamCONNECTICUT502024
PurdyNEW-YORK492022
ChilmarkMASSACHUSETTS461983
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS452024
HolmansvilleNEW-JERSEY442009
CranburyNEW-JERSEY392024
Wallum LakeRHODE-ISLAND392024
Woodstock 2CONNECTICUT382024
HuntingtonNEW-YORK382023
ManorvilleNEW-YORK362024
Block IslandRHODE-ISLAND362010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.