BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Catbird In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Gray Catbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has risen sharply: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+58%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
164Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has risen sharply in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Gray Catbird In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 21 (95% range 18–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
18–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 21 (95% range 18–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026201822
2027201822
2028201823
2029201823
2030211823

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Gray Catbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WarrenCONNECTICUT1372011
MarionMASSACHUSETTS842025
BrocktonMASSACHUSETTS752019
ShannockRHODE-ISLAND752025
Wellfleet 2MASSACHUSETTS722025
Gay HeadMASSACHUSETTS702025
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT632025
Wallum LakeRHODE-ISLAND602025
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS582025
NewburyportMASSACHUSETTS572022
ShermanCONNECTICUT562019
Mid HaddamCONNECTICUT562025
WillimanticCONNECTICUT542018
PomonaNEW-JERSEY522025
Long HillCONNECTICUT502019
Warren 2MASSACHUSETTS502025
PurdyNEW-YORK492022
ChilmarkMASSACHUSETTS461983
WinslowNEW-JERSEY462025
HolmansvilleNEW-JERSEY442009
Quonset PtRHODE-ISLAND442025
Block IslandRHODE-ISLAND422025
SouthingtonCONNECTICUT392025
MansfieldMASSACHUSETTS392025
DoverNEW-HAMPSHIRE392025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.