BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Catbird In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Gray Catbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-15%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
305Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gray Catbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Gray Catbird In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.86–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.86–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.86–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.70.862.6
20271.70.862.6
20281.70.862.6
20291.70.862.6
20301.70.862.6

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MashoesNORTH-CAROLINA471982
WashingtonNORTH-CAROLINA442025
Dismal SwampVIRGINIA432016
Dismal SwampNORTH-CAROLINA322024
Milltail CrNORTH-CAROLINA212025
Chowan RiverNORTH-CAROLINA182006
Spring HopeNORTH-CAROLINA172025
NeedmoreGEORGIA131983
ArapahoeNORTH-CAROLINA131995
CaytonNORTH-CAROLINA132024
CaliforniaNORTH-CAROLINA112013
Green SwampNORTH-CAROLINA102006
BlountstownFLORIDA92025
ReelsboroNORTH-CAROLINA92019
CornlandVIRGINIA92014
DouglasGEORGIA81984
TarverGEORGIA82023
Mt CarmelMISSISSIPPI82016
Amite RiverMISSISSIPPI82011
JarvisburgNORTH-CAROLINA81999
ErnulNORTH-CAROLINA82009
LyonsGEORGIA71994
TrentonTENNESSEE72005
MonticelloMISSISSIPPI62017
JamesvilleNORTH-CAROLINA62025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.