BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Catbird In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGeneralists

Gray Catbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-18%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
303Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gray Catbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Gray Catbird In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.90–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.90–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.90–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.80.902.6
20261.80.902.6
20271.80.902.6
20281.80.902.6
20291.80.902.6

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MashoesNORTH-CAROLINA471982
Dismal SwampVIRGINIA432016
WashingtonNORTH-CAROLINA382024
Dismal SwampNORTH-CAROLINA322024
Spring HopeNORTH-CAROLINA182024
Chowan RiverNORTH-CAROLINA182006
NeedmoreGEORGIA131983
ArapahoeNORTH-CAROLINA131995
Milltail CrNORTH-CAROLINA132024
CaytonNORTH-CAROLINA132024
CaliforniaNORTH-CAROLINA112013
JamesvilleNORTH-CAROLINA102024
Green SwampNORTH-CAROLINA102006
ReelsboroNORTH-CAROLINA92019
CornlandVIRGINIA92014
DouglasGEORGIA81984
TarverGEORGIA82023
Mt CarmelMISSISSIPPI82016
Amite RiverMISSISSIPPI82011
JarvisburgNORTH-CAROLINA81999
ErnulNORTH-CAROLINA82009
LyonsGEORGIA71994
WeberGEORGIA72024
OwensboroGEORGIA72024
TrentonTENNESSEE72005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.