BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Catbird In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

Gray Catbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-77%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has collapsed in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Gray Catbird In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±103.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.43
20260.020.000.43
20270.010.000.42
20280.000.000.41
20290.000.000.41

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI82021
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY32024
AugustaARKANSAS22000
UlmARKANSAS22000
RoselandLOUISIANA22024
River RoadLOUISIANA22000
Tchula 2MISSISSIPPI21976
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI22023
EudoraARKANSAS11999
HughesARKANSAS11986
West TylerARKANSAS11983
HarrisburgARKANSAS11991
WhittonARKANSAS11979
SaffellARKANSAS12004
MaynardARKANSAS12014
WilsonARKANSAS12012
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS12017
BardwellKENTUCKY12002
ShawLOUISIANA11994
MayflowerLOUISIANA11991
RayvilleLOUISIANA11975
RamahLOUISIANA11990
FrogmoreLOUISIANA12023
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA12019
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA12005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.