BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Catbird In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

Gray Catbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-59%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has fallen sharply in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Gray Catbird In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 71% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+71%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 71% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.180.000.50
20260.180.000.50
20270.180.000.49
20280.170.000.49
20290.170.000.48

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Gray Catbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fort JessupLOUISIANA52023
StarkARKANSAS32023
StephensARKANSAS32022
HopeARKANSAS22005
AshdownARKANSAS22023
Dry ForkARKANSAS22022
ClayLOUISIANA22016
Lake CoveLOUISIANA22018
Town BluffTEXAS22015
FredTEXAS22009
Lance Rosier BithTEXAS22019
Old MiloARKANSAS12009
RamseyARKANSAS11996
Locust BayouARKANSAS12023
StampsARKANSAS12022
CrowsARKANSAS11984
PoyenARKANSAS12007
HollywoodARKANSAS12023
BlakelyARKANSAS11994
WaldronARKANSAS11988
Coal HillARKANSAS12001
MassardARKANSAS12018
HavanaARKANSAS12013
SimsARKANSAS12019
LockesburgARKANSAS12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.