BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Catbird In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Gray Catbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition has risen sharply: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+54%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has risen sharply in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Gray Catbird In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 13 (95% range 11–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 13 (95% range 11–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025121114
2026121114
2027131114
2028131114
2029131114

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TrempealeauWISCONSIN442024
Barry S.G.A.MICHIGAN332012
N FreedomWISCONSIN322024
HighlandWISCONSIN302024
Fall RiverWISCONSIN292024
BeloitWISCONSIN282024
CohoctahMICHIGAN272024
AlmenaMICHIGAN272015
CochraneWISCONSIN272024
PardeevilleWISCONSIN272024
N AndoverWISCONSIN272024
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA252024
ViroquaWISCONSIN252024
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA242024
CaledoniaMINNESOTA232012
Prairie Du ChienWISCONSIN232024
LakevilleINDIANA222024
WhitewaterMINNESOTA222000
GilmantonWISCONSIN212024
Newburg CrnsWISCONSIN212024
Allegan WmaMICHIGAN202019
Barry S.G.A. 2MICHIGAN202019
MatherWISCONSIN202023
PackertownINDIANA192004
DresserWISCONSIN192024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.