BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Catbird In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Gray Catbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition has risen sharply: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+58%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has risen sharply in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Gray Catbird In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 13 (95% range 11–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-0%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 13 (95% range 11–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026121114
2027131114
2028131114
2029131114
2030131115

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA372025
BeloitWISCONSIN372025
MillvilleMINNESOTA342025
N AndoverWISCONSIN342025
Hazel GreenWISCONSIN342025
Barry S.G.A.MICHIGAN332012
Newburg CrnsWISCONSIN332025
N FreedomWISCONSIN312025
HighlandWISCONSIN282025
AlmenaMICHIGAN272015
TrempealeauWISCONSIN272025
ViroquaWISCONSIN252024
CohoctahMICHIGAN242025
MerideanWISCONSIN242025
AnnatonWISCONSIN242025
CaledoniaMINNESOTA232012
PardeevilleWISCONSIN232025
LakevilleINDIANA222024
ScottvilleMICHIGAN222025
NashvilleMICHIGAN222025
WhitewaterMINNESOTA222000
KendallWISCONSIN222025
WiotaWISCONSIN222025
Chatfield 2MINNESOTA212025
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN212025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.