BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Catbird In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Gray Catbird in Oaks and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-67%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has fallen sharply in Oaks and Prairies: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Gray Catbird In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±281.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±281.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±281.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.050.000.13
20250.040.000.13
20260.040.000.13
20270.040.000.13
20280.040.000.13

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SkiatookOKLAHOMA42002
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA31969
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA21976
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA22008
HenriettaTEXAS21976
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA12003
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA12023
BeggsOKLAHOMA12021
ChoctawOKLAHOMA11999
NobleOKLAHOMA12018
HeyburnOKLAHOMA12019
SchroederTEXAS11977
Arenosa CrkTEXAS11975
Oak GroveTEXAS11968
GauseTEXAS11971
Peach CreekTEXAS11967
Massey LakeTEXAS12005
OakwoodTEXAS11980
ThorntonTEXAS11979
OlaTEXAS11987
DikeTEXAS11973
HearneTEXAS12001
Blue RidgeTEXAS12009
Wills PointTEXAS12005
Gambill Ref.TEXAS12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.