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Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Catbird In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Gray Catbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+103%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Gray Catbird In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.53–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.53–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.53–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.501.6
20271.00.501.6
20281.00.511.6
20291.10.521.6
20301.10.531.6

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HollenbergKANSAS162025
BelvidereNEBRASKA142025
BoelusNEBRASKA122022
HamptonNEBRASKA102025
SurpriseNEBRASKA82025
St JohnKANSAS72019
PetersburgNEBRASKA72025
Berwyn 2NEBRASKA72025
PhillipsburgKANSAS62025
JamestownKANSAS62025
SargentNEBRASKA62025
Red CloudNEBRASKA62024
MinneapolisKANSAS52019
Ash ValleyKANSAS52019
LibertyNEBRASKA52003
HaysKANSAS42014
HopewellKANSAS42018
Beloit 2KANSAS42018
BerwynNEBRASKA42010
Liberty 3NEBRASKA42025
ColdwaterKANSAS32022
JewellKANSAS32005
MisslerKANSAS32001
Jewell 2KANSAS32025
SewardNEBRASKA32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.