BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Catbird In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Gray Catbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+93%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Gray Catbird In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 0.82 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.49–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.49–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 0.82 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.49–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.980.461.5
20260.990.471.5
20271.000.481.5
20281.00.481.5
20291.00.491.5

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BoelusNEBRASKA122022
BelvidereNEBRASKA112024
HollenbergKANSAS82023
SurpriseNEBRASKA82024
St JohnKANSAS72019
Red CloudNEBRASKA62024
MinneapolisKANSAS52019
Ash ValleyKANSAS52019
LibertyNEBRASKA52003
HaysKANSAS42014
Jewell 2KANSAS42024
HopewellKANSAS42018
Beloit 2KANSAS42018
BerwynNEBRASKA42010
HamptonNEBRASKA42024
ColdwaterKANSAS32022
CovertKANSAS32024
JewellKANSAS32005
MisslerKANSAS32001
KearneyNEBRASKA32024
HolbrookNEBRASKA32024
PetersburgNEBRASKA32023
Liberty 2NEBRASKA32007
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA32024
Berwyn 2NEBRASKA32021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.