BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Catbird In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Gray Catbird in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-68%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Gray Catbird In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±112.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±112.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±112.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.04
20260.010.000.04
20270.010.000.04
20280.010.000.04
20290.010.000.04

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PinneoCOLORADO11977
KiowaCOLORADO12002
Mica ButteCOLORADO11980
Adams Co.COLORADO12021
CheyenneCOLORADO11997
Last Chance 2COLORADO12017
LimonCOLORADO12016
NunnCOLORADO12021
ElbertCOLORADO12012
PaxtonNEBRASKA12016
DaltonNEBRASKA11968
BereaNEBRASKA11982
CrawfordNEBRASKA12024
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA12014
YoderWYOMING12024
Pine BluffWYOMING11999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.