BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Catbird In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Gray Catbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 104% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+104%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 104% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Gray Catbird In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.08–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.31Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–0.5495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.08–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.290.070.52
20270.300.070.53
20280.300.070.53
20290.300.080.53
20300.310.080.54

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO132025
Blackhead PkCOLORADO72025
CastletonUTAH61974
Rifle FallsCOLORADO52025
Ant Flat-Ogden CanUTAH52025
DoloresCOLORADO41982
JensenUTAH42025
Fletcher PkWYOMING42025
YampaCOLORADO32023
Pagosa SpgsCOLORADO31976
TarryallCOLORADO32025
AngoraCOLORADO32023
HarmonyCOLORADO22025
BufordCOLORADO22025
AspenCOLORADO22024
ParlinCOLORADO22025
FalfaCOLORADO22022
Wilson CreekCOLORADO22025
PaoniaCOLORADO22025
Groundhog RsCOLORADO22025
Steamboat L.COLORADO22025
Ragged Mtn.COLORADO22025
RadiumCOLORADO22012
Stillwater Pass 2COLORADO22013
CebollaNEW-MEXICO22004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.