BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Catbird In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Gray Catbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has risen sharply: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+62%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has risen sharply in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Gray Catbird In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 94% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.06–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+94%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 94% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.06–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.280.050.50
20260.280.050.51
20270.280.050.51
20280.280.060.51
20290.280.060.51

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ant Flat-Ogden CanUTAH102023
CastletonUTAH61974
Sybille CynWYOMING62014
DoloresCOLORADO41982
Blackhead PkCOLORADO42021
YampaCOLORADO32023
Pagosa SpgsCOLORADO31976
AngoraCOLORADO32023
BufordCOLORADO22022
AspenCOLORADO22024
FalfaCOLORADO22022
TarryallCOLORADO22022
PaoniaCOLORADO22023
Rifle FallsCOLORADO22021
RadiumCOLORADO22012
Stillwater Pass 2COLORADO22013
CebollaNEW-MEXICO22004
GallinasNEW-MEXICO22024
Angel Fire 2NEW-MEXICO22024
BeckUTAH21977
AltonahUTAH21973
BicknellUTAH22018
Lost Cr. ResUTAH22018
HarmonyCOLORADO12024
Douglas PassCOLORADO12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.