BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Catbird In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

Gray Catbird in Atlantic Northern Forest has edged down: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-10%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
150Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gray Catbird in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

Gray Catbird In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 8.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 1.2–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–7.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 8.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 1.2–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.51.67.4
20264.41.57.4
20274.31.47.3
20284.21.37.2
20294.21.27.1

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS342016
CheshireMASSACHUSETTS301994
New HartfordCONNECTICUT241987
MontereyMASSACHUSETTS242024
KasoagNEW-YORK242024
HighmarketNEW-YORK192024
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS182024
HopkintonNEW-HAMPSHIRE182024
Bowdoin CtrMAINE172021
East TroyMAINE172019
PeterboroughNEW-HAMPSHIRE172024
WalpoleNEW-HAMPSHIRE172024
W RutlandVERMONT172024
MarlowNEW-HAMPSHIRE162024
BentonMAINE151980
HermonMAINE152019
CornvilleMAINE152024
N OrangeMASSACHUSETTS152024
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE142024
BrooksMAINE132019
FletcherVERMONT132024
HancockMAINE122024
HudsonMAINE122016
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE122024
Otisfield GrMAINE112015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.