BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Catbird In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Gray Catbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+110%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Gray Catbird In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 19–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
19–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 19–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026211825
2027221825
2028221825
2029221825
2030221926

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
North EastonNEW-YORK732025
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK692025
MacdougallNEW-YORK592025
CatskillsNEW-YORK582015
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA522025
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK422025
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA382025
NaplesNEW-YORK372025
Harris HillNEW-YORK362025
DuanesburgNEW-YORK352025
CayugaNEW-YORK342025
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK342025
BranchportNEW-YORK332024
RhinebeckNEW-YORK322025
PenfieldNEW-YORK322025
Ballston LkNEW-YORK301995
HamburgNEW-YORK302025
LucerneOHIO292025
TrumansburgNEW-YORK282024
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA272025
ShaftsburyVERMONT272025
ArgyleNEW-YORK262024
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA262025
AusterlitzNEW-YORK252025
CastileNEW-YORK252025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.