BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Catbird In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Gray Catbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 105% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+105%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 105% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Gray Catbird In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 22 (95% range 18–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
18–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 22 (95% range 18–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025211724
2026211824
2027211825
2028211825
2029221825

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK682024
North EastonNEW-YORK592024
CatskillsNEW-YORK582015
CayugaNEW-YORK462024
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA422024
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK412024
NaplesNEW-YORK372024
PenfieldNEW-YORK352024
BranchportNEW-YORK332024
MacdougallNEW-YORK322024
RhinebeckNEW-YORK312024
Ballston LkNEW-YORK301995
TrumansburgNEW-YORK282024
HamburgNEW-YORK282024
AusterlitzNEW-YORK272024
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK272024
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA272023
ShaftsburyVERMONT272024
ArgyleNEW-YORK262024
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA262024
OgdensburgNEW-YORK252024
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA252024
GhentNEW-YORK242024
SalemNEW-YORK242024
Alder CreekNEW-YORK232004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.