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Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Catbird In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Gray Catbird in Boreal Hardwood Transition has held roughly steady: down 6% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-6%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gray Catbird in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Gray Catbird In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 4.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.7–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 4.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.7–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.91.74.0
20272.91.74.0
20282.81.74.0
20292.81.73.9
20302.81.73.9

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GilmanWISCONSIN242025
BashawWISCONSIN232025
Weirgor SpringsWISCONSIN202025
Mille LacsMINNESOTA132024
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA132022
CromwellMINNESOTA122025
BackusMINNESOTA122025
BrainerdMINNESOTA112024
Amnicon FallsWISCONSIN112025
WaskishMINNESOTA102025
BagleyMINNESOTA92006
GreenbushMINNESOTA92025
NebishMINNESOTA92025
MinongWISCONSIN92025
ExelandWISCONSIN92025
IrmaWISCONSIN92025
Brush CreekMICHIGAN82016
DebsMINNESOTA82025
McgregorMINNESOTA82025
Union TwpWISCONSIN82025
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN72025
Iron RiverWISCONSIN72025
BayfieldWISCONSIN72025
FlambeauWISCONSIN72025
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA62023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.