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Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Catbird In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Gray Catbird in Boreal Hardwood Transition has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-13%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gray Catbird in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Gray Catbird In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 1.6–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 1.6–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.81.73.9
20262.81.73.8
20272.81.73.8
20282.71.73.8
20292.71.63.8

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Union TwpWISCONSIN252024
GilmanWISCONSIN172024
Weirgor SpringsWISCONSIN142024
Mille LacsMINNESOTA132024
Pine RiverMINNESOTA132024
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA132022
BrainerdMINNESOTA112024
CouderayWISCONSIN102019
AmbergWISCONSIN102024
DebsMINNESOTA92024
BagleyMINNESOTA92006
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN82023
Brush CreekMICHIGAN82016
GreenbushMINNESOTA82024
Rib LakeWISCONSIN82024
FlambeauWISCONSIN82024
MinongWISCONSIN72024
IrmaWISCONSIN72024
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA62023
BackusMINNESOTA62024
FloodwoodMINNESOTA62024
Tamarac NwrMINNESOTA62024
MareniscoMICHIGAN52019
IronsMICHIGAN51989
MayfieldMICHIGAN52019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.