BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grasshopper Sparrow In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGrassland birds

Grasshopper Sparrow in Sierra Madre Occidental has fallen sharply: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-68%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grasshopper Sparrow has fallen sharply in Sierra Madre Occidental: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±83.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.001.4
20260.000.001.4
20270.000.001.4
20280.000.001.4
20290.000.001.4

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Grasshopper Sparrow in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PatagoniaARIZONA32024
SunizonaARIZONA21996
RuckerARIZONA22009
AmadoARIZONA12019
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.