BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grasshopper Sparrow In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGrassland birds

Grasshopper Sparrow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-84%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grasshopper Sparrow has collapsed in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Grasshopper Sparrow In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±781.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±781.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±781.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.000.94
20260.220.000.93
20270.210.000.92
20280.210.000.92
20290.200.000.91

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Grasshopper Sparrow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SaffellARKANSAS32019
MayflowerLOUISIANA31967
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE32017
EudoraARKANSAS21993
South BendARKANSAS21998
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE22009
HughesARKANSAS11997
HarrisburgARKANSAS12007
WhittonARKANSAS11978
AugustaARKANSAS12001
MaynardARKANSAS11996
GillettARKANSAS12024
WilsonARKANSAS12017
Augusta 2ARKANSAS12010
BardwellKENTUCKY11989
DundeeMISSISSIPPI12004
TippoMISSISSIPPI11998
DeventerMISSOURI12023
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI12016
BlodgettMISSOURI12018
PawpawTENNESSEE12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.