BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grasshopper Sparrow In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGrassland birds

Grasshopper Sparrow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-84%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grasshopper Sparrow has collapsed in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±781.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±781.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±781.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.000.94
20260.220.000.93
20270.210.000.92
20280.210.000.92
20290.200.000.91

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Grasshopper Sparrow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SaffellARKANSAS32019
MayflowerLOUISIANA31967
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE32017
EudoraARKANSAS21993
South BendARKANSAS21998
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE22009
HughesARKANSAS11997
HarrisburgARKANSAS12007
WhittonARKANSAS11978
AugustaARKANSAS12001
MaynardARKANSAS11996
GillettARKANSAS12024
WilsonARKANSAS12017
Augusta 2ARKANSAS12010
BardwellKENTUCKY11989
DundeeMISSISSIPPI12004
TippoMISSISSIPPI11998
DeventerMISSOURI12023
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI12016
BlodgettMISSOURI12018
PawpawTENNESSEE12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.