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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grasshopper Sparrow In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGrassland birds

Grasshopper Sparrow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has edged down: down 11% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-11%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Grasshopper Sparrow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±207.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±207.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±207.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.21
20260.070.000.21
20270.070.000.21
20280.070.000.21
20290.070.000.21

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Grasshopper Sparrow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MatoyOKLAHOMA112000
CanadianOKLAHOMA32005
Mer RougeLOUISIANA21973
PhillipsOKLAHOMA22005
IndianolaOKLAHOMA22024
PocolaOKLAHOMA22004
New WaverlyTEXAS21974
CrossroadsTEXAS21972
Locust BayouARKANSAS12002
AshdownARKANSAS12007
HollywoodARKANSAS12017
MassardARKANSAS11970
HavanaARKANSAS12015
SimsARKANSAS12013
StephensARKANSAS12016
Poyen 2ARKANSAS12012
De RidderLOUISIANA11980
Big CedarOKLAHOMA12003
BlancoOKLAHOMA11992
SandbluffOKLAHOMA11994
AthensTEXAS11996
Chandler 2TEXAS12011
Easton 2TEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.