BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grasshopper Sparrow In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGrassland birds

Grasshopper Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-60%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grasshopper Sparrow has fallen sharply in Oaks and Prairies: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 73% by 2029 — from 0.70 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±257.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+73%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±257.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 73% by 2029 — from 0.70 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±257.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.002.7
20261.20.002.7
20271.20.002.7
20281.20.002.7
20291.20.002.7

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Grasshopper Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OakwoodTEXAS101986
HenriettaTEXAS92022
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA71976
OlneyTEXAS72024
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA62024
OlaTEXAS52014
GrafordTEXAS52016
Thornton 2TEXAS52010
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA42017
RhomeTEXAS42024
WalburgTEXAS42012
CayugaTEXAS42007
CarlosTEXAS42012
CreedmoreTEXAS42006
DuranTEXAS41998
Whit Mtn.TEXAS42016
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA32018
Lone OakTEXAS32014
Three RiversTEXAS32024
BriteTEXAS32023
BrucevilleTEXAS32010
Gambill Ref.TEXAS31995
LocoOKLAHOMA21985
BeggsOKLAHOMA22022
NobleOKLAHOMA22003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.