BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grasshopper Sparrow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGrassland birds

Grasshopper Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has edged up: up 19% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+19%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
128Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Grasshopper Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 11–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 11–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025161022
2026161022
2027161022
2028161022
2029161122

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Grasshopper Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MullenNEBRASKA1532023
RinggoldNEBRASKA842024
SutherlandNEBRASKA662024
AlmeriaNEBRASKA642021
BookerTEXAS612024
ArthurNEBRASKA582024
ColdwaterKANSAS552022
BrownleeNEBRASKA472024
Swan LakeNEBRASKA432023
BerwynNEBRASKA412010
Piester LakeNEBRASKA392024
NenzelNEBRASKA382024
ChapmanKANSAS351981
BassettNEBRASKA352024
AshlandKANSAS342021
GordonNEBRASKA312024
ChambersNEBRASKA312023
MaxwellNEBRASKA302024
CoatsKANSAS292024
CulbertsonNEBRASKA292024
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA272024
SicklesOKLAHOMA272021
TegardenOKLAHOMA262016
CoopertonOKLAHOMA262024
BeaverOKLAHOMA252018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.