BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Grasshopper Sparrow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGrassland birds

Grasshopper Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has increased: up 30% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+30%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
128Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Grasshopper Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Grasshopper Sparrow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 11–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 11–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026161022
2027161022
2028161022
2029161022
2030161122

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Grasshopper Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MullenNEBRASKA1532023
RinggoldNEBRASKA892025
SutherlandNEBRASKA652025
AlmeriaNEBRASKA642021
Swan LakeNEBRASKA632025
ArthurNEBRASKA592025
ColdwaterKANSAS552022
BookerTEXAS532025
ChambersNEBRASKA452025
Piester LakeNEBRASKA412025
BerwynNEBRASKA412010
Crescent LkNEBRASKA392025
ChapmanKANSAS351981
AshlandKANSAS342021
CulbertsonNEBRASKA332025
NenzelNEBRASKA312025
BradyNEBRASKA292025
BartleyNEBRASKA282025
BrownleeNEBRASKA282025
Berwyn 2NEBRASKA272025
BassettNEBRASKA272025
LookoutOKLAHOMA272025
SicklesOKLAHOMA272021
CoatsKANSAS262025
SolomonKANSAS262025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.