BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grasshopper Sparrow In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGrassland birds

Grasshopper Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie has edged down: down 12% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-12%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Grasshopper Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Grasshopper Sparrow In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 9.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 5.2–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.2–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 9.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 5.2–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025125.418
2026125.318
2027115.318
2028115.318
2029115.218

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Grasshopper Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA902024
HookerOKLAHOMA762024
MarslandNEBRASKA572021
HardestyOKLAHOMA562024
Wildhorse LCOLORADO552024
PantexTEXAS502024
KirkCOLORADO412023
GrigstonKANSAS362024
ChugwaterWYOMING362024
AgateNEBRASKA342001
FloydadaTEXAS322024
StonehamCOLORADO292021
WaverlyCOLORADO272019
TwichellTEXAS272023
PinneoCOLORADO262019
CampoCOLORADO252019
KeyesOKLAHOMA252024
GruverTEXAS252024
CactusTEXAS252024
Last ChanceCOLORADO222015
Agate 2NEBRASKA222024
BrownsonNEBRASKA202021
NunnCOLORADO192021
AbarrCOLORADO172024
RushCOLORADO152024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.