BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Grasshopper Sparrow In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGrassland birds

Grasshopper Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie has held roughly steady: down 5% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-5%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Grasshopper Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Grasshopper Sparrow In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 11 (95% range 5.2–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.2–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 11 (95% range 5.2–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026115.318
2027115.318
2028115.318
2029115.217
2030115.217

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Grasshopper Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA842025
MarslandNEBRASKA572021
HardestyOKLAHOMA562024
PantexTEXAS422025
Wildhorse LCOLORADO412025
KirkCOLORADO412023
GruverTEXAS412025
BriggsdaleCOLORADO382025
CactusTEXAS382025
GrigstonKANSAS362024
HookerOKLAHOMA362025
ChugwaterWYOMING362024
Agate 2NEBRASKA352025
AgateNEBRASKA342001
Murray LakeNEBRASKA282025
WaverlyCOLORADO272019
Arsenal 2COLORADO252025
KeyesOKLAHOMA252024
TwichellTEXAS252025
Last ChanceCOLORADO222015
DaltonNEBRASKA222025
DalhartTEXAS222025
FloydadaTEXAS212025
PritchettCOLORADO202025
BrownsonNEBRASKA202021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.