BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grasshopper Sparrow In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGrassland birds

Grasshopper Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-21%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
128Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Grasshopper Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 5.6–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.6–2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 5.6–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025165.427
2026165.427
2027165.527
2028165.527
2029165.627

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Grasshopper Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA1082024
Dinosaurs H.M.MONTANA1012024
LocateMONTANA982024
CircleMONTANA772023
Coleman CouleeMONTANA682023
RosebudSOUTH-DAKOTA662011
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA652022
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA632024
HardingSOUTH-DAKOTA622019
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA612024
CrookstonNEBRASKA602024
S. PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA602024
WinnettMONTANA562023
IndianSOUTH-DAKOTA512024
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA472004
LodgepoleSOUTH-DAKOTA472024
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA452024
White RiverSOUTH-DAKOTA442014
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA422018
MarcusSOUTH-DAKOTA422015
Cabin CreekMONTANA402024
LaplantSOUTH-DAKOTA402015
GolvaNORTH-DAKOTA382023
Flatwillow 2MONTANA372023
Jordan SouthMONTANA372024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.