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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grasshopper Sparrow In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGrassland birds

Grasshopper Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-64%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grasshopper Sparrow has fallen sharply in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Grasshopper Sparrow In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 100% by 2020 — from 0.06 in 2015 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±322.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2020TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2020 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±322.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 100% by 2020 — from 0.06 in 2015 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±322.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672020
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20160.000.000.05
20170.000.000.05
20180.000.000.05
20190.000.000.05
20200.000.000.05

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Grasshopper Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BentonMAINE51978
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE21970
FranconiaNEW-HAMPSHIRE22015
HarmonyMAINE12015
CheshireMASSACHUSETTS11973
LempsterNEW-HAMPSHIRE12002
ClarksvilleNEW-HAMPSHIRE12011
Jeffers NtchNEW-HAMPSHIRE12000
PetersburgNEW-YORK11974
KasoagNEW-YORK12015
HighmarketNEW-YORK11991
Number FourNEW-YORK11967
UnderwoodNEW-YORK11971
S WallingfrdVERMONT11993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.