BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grasshopper Sparrow In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGrassland birds

Grasshopper Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-94%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grasshopper Sparrow has collapsed in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Grasshopper Sparrow In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±390.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±390.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±390.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.63
20260.000.000.63
20270.000.000.63
20280.000.000.63
20290.000.000.63

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Grasshopper Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK91979
RomulusNEW-YORK72000
LenoxOHIO61981
MacdougallNEW-YORK52022
HiramOHIO42008
RandolphNEW-YORK31972
AkeleyPENNSYLVANIA31979
RhinebeckNEW-YORK21999
CastileNEW-YORK21995
St JohnsburgNEW-YORK21981
ByronNEW-YORK21986
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK22024
ClintonNEW-YORK22002
ArgyleNEW-YORK22024
Herner CrnsOHIO22005
LucerneOHIO22011
MaysvilleOHIO22012
CloverPENNSYLVANIA21994
ColchesterVERMONT22006
AusterlitzNEW-YORK11989
CatskillsNEW-YORK11972
GhentNEW-YORK11990
Ballston LkNEW-YORK11969
DuanesburgNEW-YORK12017
CayugaNEW-YORK11993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.