BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grasshopper Sparrow In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGrassland birds

Grasshopper Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-94%Since 1968
71Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Grasshopper Sparrow has collapsed in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±390.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.6395% range
±390.3%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.000.000.63
20260.000.000.63
20270.000.000.63
20280.000.000.63
20290.000.000.63

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Grasshopper Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK91979
RomulusNEW-YORK72000
LenoxOHIO61981
MacdougallNEW-YORK52022
HiramOHIO42008
RandolphNEW-YORK31972
AkeleyPENNSYLVANIA31979
RhinebeckNEW-YORK21999
CastileNEW-YORK21995
St JohnsburgNEW-YORK21981
ByronNEW-YORK21986
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK22024
ClintonNEW-YORK22002
ArgyleNEW-YORK22024
Herner CrnsOHIO22005
LucerneOHIO22011
MaysvilleOHIO22012
CloverPENNSYLVANIA21994
ColchesterVERMONT22006
AusterlitzNEW-YORK11989
CatskillsNEW-YORK11972
GhentNEW-YORK11990
Ballston LkNEW-YORK11969
DuanesburgNEW-YORK12017
CayugaNEW-YORK11993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.