BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grace's Warbler In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertForest birds

Grace's Warbler in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 108% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

+108%Since 1980
3Routes In Region
42Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Grace's Warbler has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 108% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grace's Warbler in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 0.45 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029
0.34Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.8095% range
±86.9%Backtest error
19772029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.340.000.80
20260.340.000.80
20270.340.000.80
20280.340.000.80
20290.340.000.80

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Grace's Warbler in Chihuahuan Desert.
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO92024
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO22024
PinonNEW-MEXICO22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.