BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Golden Eagle In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Birds of prey

Golden Eagle in BCR 4 has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

-72%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden Eagle has fallen sharply in BCR 4: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

Golden Eagle In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden Eagle in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 63% by 2030 — from 0.05 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-63%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden Eagle in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 63% by 2030 — from 0.05 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.030.000.12
20270.030.000.12
20280.020.000.12
20290.020.000.12
20300.020.000.12

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Golden Eagle in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Donelly DomeALASKA22000
EagleALASKA12007
MaclarenALASKA11997
MonahanALASKA12021
ToklatALASKA12021
SavageALASKA12025
Hatcher PassALASKA12002
DeltaALASKA11998
Pinoche Tral (Short)ALASKA11984
Galena (Short)ALASKA12008
Nabesna RoadALASKA12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.