BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden Eagle In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Golden Eagle in Chihuahuan Desert has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-60%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden Eagle has fallen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Golden Eagle In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden Eagle in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 63% by 2024 — from 0.13 in 2019 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-63%Change by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden Eagle in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 63% by 2024 — from 0.13 in 2019 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.060.000.18
20210.060.000.18
20220.050.000.17
20230.050.000.17
20240.050.000.17

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Golden Eagle in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GageNEW-MEXICO22019
DemingNEW-MEXICO21974
JornadaNEW-MEXICO22016
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO22019
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO22002
SlaughterTEXAS22014
Salt FlatTEXAS22013
RoswellNEW-MEXICO11969
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO12012
RodeoNEW-MEXICO12002
Red RockNEW-MEXICO12003
PinonNEW-MEXICO12008
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO12004
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO12016
EngleNEW-MEXICO11988
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO12017
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO12010
Hot SpringsTEXAS12012
ShafterTEXAS11983
AltudaTEXAS12006
ValentineTEXAS11974
CornudasTEXAS11986
Coyanda DrawTEXAS12003
ToyahvaleTEXAS12003
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS12007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.