BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Glossy Ibis In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWetland birds

Glossy Ibis in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 283% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+283%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Glossy Ibis has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 283% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Glossy Ibis In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Glossy Ibis in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 74% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 1.1–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+74%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–7.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Glossy Ibis in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 74% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 1.1–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.80.876.8
20263.90.936.9
20274.00.996.9
20284.01.17.0
20294.11.17.1

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Glossy Ibis in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ClewistonFLORIDA602023
Holey LandFLORIDA502024
BrowardFLORIDA421971
Mabel 2FLORIDA302019
ShawanoFLORIDA232001
Shawano 2FLORIDA232011
Dupuis W.E.AFLORIDA222008
Indiantown 2FLORIDA202022
Ridge HarborFLORIDA172024
Myakka Head 2FLORIDA162021
KissimmeeFLORIDA152017
AripekaFLORIDA152022
SandyFLORIDA142015
AlvaFLORIDA132023
AndytownFLORIDA121987
Pennywash CrFLORIDA112009
HomesteadFLORIDA102023
Green SwampFLORIDA102001
Polk CityFLORIDA82019
Winter GardnFLORIDA72019
WebbFLORIDA72024
Weaver StnFLORIDA52019
ScottsmoorFLORIDA42024
Pleasant GrFLORIDA42009
Devils GardnFLORIDA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.