BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Glossy Ibis In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastWetland birds

Glossy Ibis in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 102% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+102%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Glossy Ibis has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Glossy Ibis in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 969% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±753.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+969%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±753.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Glossy Ibis in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 969% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±753.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.003.5
20261.40.003.5
20271.40.003.5
20281.40.003.5
20291.40.003.5

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Glossy Ibis in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt PleasantDELAWARE762016
Bethany BchDELAWARE501989
VillasNEW-JERSEY411981
Golden HillMARYLAND251972
Del HavenNEW-JERSEY171991
PomfretMARYLAND151994
Sachuest PtRHODE-ISLAND151989
BerlinMARYLAND112021
GeorgetownDELAWARE102022
Furnace TownMARYLAND72018
HongaMARYLAND62024
FrankfordDELAWARE52007
MiltonDELAWARE52004
MysticCONNECTICUT41998
HarringtonDELAWARE42014
SinepuxentMARYLAND41975
Jones BeachNEW-YORK42013
WilmingtonDELAWARE32009
IndiantownMARYLAND32004
East KingstonNEW-HAMPSHIRE32000
Six PointsNEW-JERSEY32015
Ocean CityNEW-JERSEY32022
SpraguetownNEW-JERSEY31991
Cape May ChNEW-JERSEY32013
WestbrookCONNECTICUT22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.