BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gilded Flicker In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsArid-land birds

Gilded Flicker in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has increased: up 26% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+26%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gilded Flicker in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Gilded Flicker In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gilded Flicker in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 87% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.2–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+87%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gilded Flicker in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 87% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.2–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.41.13.7
20262.41.13.7
20272.41.13.8
20282.51.13.8
20292.51.23.8

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Gilded Flicker in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HopeARIZONA162009
Casa GrandeARIZONA162022
Organ PipeARIZONA162023
Cabeza PrietARIZONA152024
LukevilleARIZONA131981
Bates WellARIZONA132023
FlorenceARIZONA121988
WickenburgARIZONA122023
New RiverARIZONA92016
Alamo Res.ARIZONA82024
AjoARIZONA72001
Red RockARIZONA72014
Cactus ForestARIZONA72024
Red Rock 2ARIZONA72024
WikieupARIZONA52022
VicksburgARIZONA41989
CoolidgeARIZONA41985
PisinimoARIZONA41993
QuartzsiteARIZONA32021
OatmanARIZONA22005
ArabyARIZONA21996
Cutter 2ARIZONA22018
Hope 2ARIZONA22019
IvanpahCALIFORNIA22019
DatelandARIZONA12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.