BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gila Woodpecker In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalArid-land birds

Gila Woodpecker in Sierra Madre Occidental has surged: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+77%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gila Woodpecker has surged in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gila Woodpecker in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 5.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 2.9–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–6.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gila Woodpecker in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 5.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 2.9–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.42.76.1
20264.52.76.2
20274.52.86.2
20284.62.86.3
20294.62.96.3

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Gila Woodpecker in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RedingtonARIZONA362023
Bartlett ResARIZONA242024
PomereneARIZONA232024
Carr MtnARIZONA172024
PatagoniaARIZONA162024
SahuaritaARIZONA122024
AmadoARIZONA72023
CutterARIZONA52014
SunizonaARIZONA41992
Aztec PeakARIZONA21978
Sunizona 2ARIZONA22024
Peña BlancaARIZONA12022
Skull ValleyARIZONA12024
McnealARIZONA12021
SprucedaleARIZONA12019
RuckerARIZONA11998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.