BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gila Woodpecker In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalArid-land birds

Gila Woodpecker in Sierra Madre Occidental has risen sharply: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+71%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gila Woodpecker has risen sharply in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Gila Woodpecker In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gila Woodpecker in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 3.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 2.9–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–6.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gila Woodpecker in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 3.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 2.9–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.42.76.1
20274.52.86.2
20284.52.86.2
20294.62.96.3
20304.62.96.3

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Gila Woodpecker in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PomereneARIZONA252025
Bartlett ResARIZONA182025
RedingtonARIZONA182025
PatagoniaARIZONA172025
Carr MtnARIZONA172025
CutterARIZONA52014
AmadoARIZONA52025
SunizonaARIZONA41992
SahuaritaARIZONA42025
Aztec PeakARIZONA21978
Sunizona 2ARIZONA22025
Peña BlancaARIZONA12022
Skull ValleyARIZONA12024
McnealARIZONA12021
SprucedaleARIZONA12019
RuckerARIZONA11998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.