BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gila Woodpecker In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsArid-land birds

Gila Woodpecker in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has surged: up 229% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+229%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gila Woodpecker has surged in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 229% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gila Woodpecker in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 99% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.3 (95% range 4.4–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+99%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.4–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gila Woodpecker in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 99% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.3 (95% range 4.4–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.93.912
20268.04.112
20278.14.212
20288.24.312
20298.34.412

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Gila Woodpecker in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Organ PipeARIZONA1082023
Bates WellARIZONA572023
Red Rock 2ARIZONA522024
Red RockARIZONA452014
New RiverARIZONA352016
FlorenceARIZONA331988
Cabeza PrietARIZONA302024
LukevilleARIZONA291981
QuartzsiteARIZONA132024
WickenburgARIZONA112023
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA102010
Ajo 2ARIZONA92022
Alamo Res.ARIZONA82024
ArabyARIZONA82023
WikieupARIZONA72024
AjoARIZONA72008
Cibola LakeARIZONA62024
HopeARIZONA52009
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA52024
Hope 2ARIZONA52019
Cutter 2ARIZONA42018
Gila BendARIZONA32024
PisinimoARIZONA31992
VicksburgARIZONA21989
Casa GrandeARIZONA22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.