BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gila Woodpecker In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsArid-land birds

Gila Woodpecker in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has surged: up 173% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+173%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gila Woodpecker has surged in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 173% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Gila Woodpecker In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gila Woodpecker in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 211% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 3.9–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+211%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.9–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±76.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gila Woodpecker in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 211% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 3.9–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.63.512
20277.73.612
20287.83.712
20297.93.812
20308.03.912

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Gila Woodpecker in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Organ PipeARIZONA1082023
Bates WellARIZONA572023
Red Rock 2ARIZONA522024
Red RockARIZONA452014
New RiverARIZONA352016
FlorenceARIZONA331988
LukevilleARIZONA291981
Cabeza PrietARIZONA262025
QuartzsiteARIZONA212025
WickenburgARIZONA112023
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA102010
Alamo Res.ARIZONA92025
Ajo 2ARIZONA92022
ArabyARIZONA82023
WikieupARIZONA72024
AjoARIZONA72008
Gila BendARIZONA72025
Cactus ForestARIZONA72025
Cibola LakeARIZONA62024
HopeARIZONA52009
Hope 2ARIZONA52019
Cutter 2ARIZONA42018
PisinimoARIZONA31992
VicksburgARIZONA21989
Casa GrandeARIZONA22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.