BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gambel's Quail In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinArid-land birds

Gambel's Quail in Great Basin has increased: up 46% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+46%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gambel's Quail in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Gambel's Quail In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gambel's Quail in Great Basin is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.04–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gambel's Quail in Great Basin is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.04–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.140.030.24
20260.140.040.25
20270.140.040.25
20280.140.040.25
20290.150.040.25

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Gambel's Quail in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BakerIDAHO262024
Meadow VallyNEVADA102024
WillisNEVADA52003
HikoNEVADA22023
CalienteNEVADA22019
JoelIDAHO11989
NewcastleUTAH12004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.