BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gambel's Quail In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertArid-land birds

Gambel's Quail in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 22× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

22×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gambel's Quail has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 22× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gambel's Quail in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 8.1–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.1–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gambel's Quail in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 8.1–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025127.216
2026127.416
2027127.616
2028127.817
2029128.117

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Gambel's Quail in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PresidioTEXAS1012023
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO752019
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO502024
Red RockNEW-MEXICO432024
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO392024
GageNEW-MEXICO352024
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS352009
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO311977
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS262024
RodeoNEW-MEXICO182024
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO172024
Van HornTEXAS172024
SlaughterTEXAS162014
JornadaNEW-MEXICO142024
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO112024
CanutilloTEXAS102024
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO92024
MesillaNEW-MEXICO72000
Sierra BlancTEXAS62024
EngleNEW-MEXICO51989
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO32024
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO22005
Casa PiedraTEXAS22023
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO11970
DemingNEW-MEXICO11971

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.