BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gambel's Quail In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGame birds

Gambel's Quail in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 19× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

19×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gambel's Quail has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 19× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Gambel's Quail In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gambel's Quail in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 58% by 2030 — from 7.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.8–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+58%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.8–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gambel's Quail in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 58% by 2030 — from 7.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.8–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026127.016
2027127.216
2028127.416
2029127.617
2030127.817

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Gambel's Quail in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO752019
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS712025
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS352009
Van HornTEXAS332025
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO311977
JornadaNEW-MEXICO302025
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO262025
Red RockNEW-MEXICO242025
RodeoNEW-MEXICO212025
GageNEW-MEXICO202025
Sierra BlancTEXAS182025
SlaughterTEXAS162014
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO132025
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO92024
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO82025
MesillaNEW-MEXICO72000
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO62025
PresidioTEXAS62025
EngleNEW-MEXICO51989
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO42025
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO22005
Casa PiedraTEXAS22023
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO11970
DemingNEW-MEXICO11971
CanutilloTEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.