BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gambel's Quail In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGame birds

Gambel's Quail in Sierra Madre Occidental has held roughly steady: up 7% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+7%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gambel's Quail in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Gambel's Quail In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gambel's Quail in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 79% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 3.2–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+79%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gambel's Quail in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 79% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 3.2–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026193.434
2027193.434
2028193.334
2029183.334
2030183.234

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Gambel's Quail in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Skull ValleyARIZONA1042024
Bartlett ResARIZONA632025
DragoonARIZONA492009
Carr MtnARIZONA432025
CutterARIZONA402014
Aztec PeakARIZONA321978
San SimonARIZONA312024
Skull Valley 2ARIZONA312025
PortalARIZONA292025
RuckerARIZONA262009
McnealARIZONA252025
SahuaritaARIZONA152025
AmadoARIZONA132025
PomereneARIZONA122025
SunizonaARIZONA101997
Forest LakesARIZONA101993
Peña BlancaARIZONA92025
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO82025
SprucedaleARIZONA72025
RedingtonARIZONA62025
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO52025
PatagoniaARIZONA32025
PrescottARIZONA22022
WilliamsARIZONA22025
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.