BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gambel's Quail In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalArid-land birds

Gambel's Quail in Sierra Madre Occidental has edged up: up 15% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+15%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gambel's Quail in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Gambel's Quail In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gambel's Quail in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 4.0–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.0–3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gambel's Quail in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 4.0–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025194.234
2026194.134
2027194.134
2028194.134
2029194.034

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Gambel's Quail in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Skull ValleyARIZONA1042024
Bartlett ResARIZONA1032024
Carr MtnARIZONA822024
PomereneARIZONA532024
DragoonARIZONA492009
SahuaritaARIZONA482024
CutterARIZONA402014
RedingtonARIZONA332023
Aztec PeakARIZONA321978
San SimonARIZONA312024
RuckerARIZONA262009
PortalARIZONA212024
McnealARIZONA182024
SunizonaARIZONA101997
Forest LakesARIZONA101993
Peña BlancaARIZONA92024
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO72024
AmadoARIZONA62023
SprucedaleARIZONA52023
ReserveNEW-MEXICO52023
Sunizona 2ARIZONA42024
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO42024
PatagoniaARIZONA32024
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA32008
PrescottARIZONA22022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.