BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gambel's Quail In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsGame birds

Gambel's Quail in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has increased: up 36% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+36%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gambel's Quail in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Gambel's Quail In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gambel's Quail in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 105% by 2030 — from 9.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 8.7–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+105%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.7–2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±76.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gambel's Quail in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 105% by 2030 — from 9.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 8.7–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026188.128
2027188.228
2028198.429
2029198.629
2030198.729

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Gambel's Quail in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WickenburgARIZONA942023
Joshua TreeCALIFORNIA762002
Bates WellARIZONA592023
New RiverARIZONA552016
FlorenceARIZONA521988
Casa GrandeARIZONA522023
Red Rock 2ARIZONA472024
Organ PipeARIZONA462023
Jean LakeNEVADA422013
CoolidgeARIZONA401985
Gila BendARIZONA362024
WikieupARIZONA342024
Alamo Res.ARIZONA332025
Cabeza PrietARIZONA302025
Ash MeadowsNEVADA292025
RivieraARIZONA282025
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA282010
Cutter 2ARIZONA272018
PisinimoARIZONA261993
Palo VerdeARIZONA252013
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA232025
QuartzsiteARIZONA222025
Coachella CnCALIFORNIA202013
LukevilleARIZONA191981
Havasu LakeCALIFORNIA172003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.