BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gambel's Quail In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsArid-land birds

Gambel's Quail in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has increased: up 32% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+32%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gambel's Quail in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gambel's Quail in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 9.5–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.5–2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gambel's Quail in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 9.5–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025198.829
2026199.029
2027199.229
2028199.329
2029199.529

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Gambel's Quail in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WickenburgARIZONA942023
Joshua TreeCALIFORNIA762002
Bates WellARIZONA592023
New RiverARIZONA552016
FlorenceARIZONA521988
Casa GrandeARIZONA522023
Cabeza PrietARIZONA472024
Red Rock 2ARIZONA472024
Organ PipeARIZONA462023
Cactus ForestARIZONA432024
Jean LakeNEVADA422013
CoolidgeARIZONA401985
NelsonNEVADA382024
Ash MeadowsNEVADA382024
Gila BendARIZONA362024
WikieupARIZONA342024
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA322024
QuartzsiteARIZONA302024
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA282010
Cutter 2ARIZONA272018
PisinimoARIZONA261993
Palo VerdeARIZONA252013
Alamo Res.ARIZONA222024
Coachella CnCALIFORNIA202013
Joshua Tree 2CALIFORNIA202016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.