BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gambel's Quail In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauArid-land birds

Gambel's Quail in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has held roughly steady: up 9% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+9%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gambel's Quail in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gambel's Quail in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 0.87 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.09–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.57Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gambel's Quail in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 0.87 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.09–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.570.091.1
20260.570.091.1
20270.570.091.1
20280.570.091.1
20290.570.091.1

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Gambel's Quail in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AztecNEW-MEXICO361989
AnethUTAH362024
ShivwitzUTAH322024
FarmingtonNEW-MEXICO311987
La PlataNEW-MEXICO212013
Peach SpringARIZONA162024
La Plata 2NEW-MEXICO152016
FruitaCOLORADO82003
Horse MtnNEW-MEXICO82024
ToroweapARIZONA62024
The GapARIZONA51968
RosevaleCOLORADO42024
SanosteeNEW-MEXICO42023
BoulderUTAH31990
Douglas PassCOLORADO22024
Willow PeakCOLORADO21992
Animas 2COLORADO22015
ValenciaNEW-MEXICO21991
Cerro VerdeNEW-MEXICO21985
Moquith MtnUTAH22024
Wellington 2UTAH22003
Mt TrumbullARIZONA11980
YampaiARIZONA11977
Rose WellsARIZONA11978
OraibiARIZONA12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.