BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gadwall Population Trend in Utah

All statesWaterfowl

Gadwall in Utah has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

-8%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gadwall Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gadwall in Utah. See the full index history below.

Gadwall Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Gadwall in Utah is projected to rise about 350% by 2029 — from 0.44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±241.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+350%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±241.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gadwall in Utah is projected to rise about 350% by 2029 — from 0.44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±241.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.00.004.1
20262.00.004.1
20272.00.004.2
20282.00.004.2
20292.00.004.2

Gadwall Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Gadwall in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bear River4120231992
Neponset Res4020171995
Vernal3120161999
Callao1020241992
Navajo Lake920241986
E. Bear Lake820221999
Wellington 2820112010
Saleratus Cr520161995
Randolph420241992
Ferron420132013
Alton420102001
Jensen420231992
Timpie Spg319841982
Skyline Driv320031986
Promontory220231974
Goshen220121998
Dragerton219971997
Woodruff220172017
Lynn220211986
M Warner Res220241993
Beck 2220051993
Green River220132013
Gold Hill220021987
Uintah Nf219901990
Fish Lake Nf220042004

Gadwall Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradodelawareidahoillinoisiowakansasmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatexasvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.