BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gadwall In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinWaterfowl

Gadwall in Great Basin has surged: up 958% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+958%Since 1970
117Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Gadwall has surged in Great Basin: up 958% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gadwall in Great Basin is projected to rise about 167% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 1.2–9.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±327.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+167%Change by 2029
5.5Projected 2029 index
1.2–9.895% range
±327.6%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20255.30.959.6
20265.31.09.6
20275.41.19.7
20285.41.19.8
20295.51.29.8

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Gadwall in Great Basin.
DorrisCALIFORNIA2122019
LikelyCALIFORNIA732024
Warner VallyOREGON482024
Bear RiverUTAH412023
BentonCALIFORNIA382024
BrewsterWASHINGTON352018
Columbia NwrWASHINGTON342021
Fish LakeOREGON252024
MadelineCALIFORNIA222024
Ruby ValleyNEVADA202000
MacdoelCALIFORNIA142019
CedarvilleCALIFORNIA142019
Iron GateCALIFORNIA132019
OthelloWASHINGTON131991
Modoc Point 2OREGON122024
CallaoUTAH102024
Virgin CreekNEVADA92018
MerrillOREGON92022
Majors PlaceNEVADA81999
Malheur NwrOREGON81996
Catlow RimOREGON72024
Cedar HillIDAHO62024
BlyOREGON61995
Flook LakeOREGON62024
Crowley LakeCALIFORNIA52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.