BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gadwall In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestWaterfowl

Gadwall in Northern Pacific Rainforest has increased: up 30% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+30%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gadwall in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Gadwall In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gadwall in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±273.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±273.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gadwall in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±273.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.080.000.19
20250.080.000.19
20260.080.000.19
20270.080.000.19
20280.080.000.19

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Gadwall in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nicolai Mtn.OREGON42017
Moose PassALASKA21985
YrekaCALIFORNIA22018
AdairOREGON22021
LoraneOREGON22000
ScappooseOREGON22008
Port AngelesWASHINGTON22010
DeceptionWASHINGTON21997
Copper RiverALASKA11993
MccloudCALIFORNIA11985
WhiskeytownCALIFORNIA12003
Sams ValleyOREGON12007
Warm BeachWASHINGTON12002
Bay ViewWASHINGTON12006
MukilteoWASHINGTON12023
CarnationWASHINGTON12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.