BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gadwall In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesWaterfowl

Gadwall in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 226% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+226%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gadwall has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 226% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Gadwall In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gadwall in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.81–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.81–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gadwall in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.81–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.80.762.8
20261.80.772.9
20271.80.782.9
20281.80.792.9
20291.80.812.9

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Gadwall in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA232024
Dinosaurs H.M.MONTANA152021
RozetWYOMING152017
LaplantSOUTH-DAKOTA112011
CottonwoodSOUTH-DAKOTA112024
White RiverSOUTH-DAKOTA102012
BrandenbergMONTANA82007
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA82011
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA72015
ArdmoreSOUTH-DAKOTA72019
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA72023
ClarkelenWYOMING71975
BillWYOMING71999
BucknumWYOMING72024
RoundupMONTANA62024
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA62022
LodgepoleSOUTH-DAKOTA62022
NatronaWYOMING61990
SussexWYOMING62024
LocateMONTANA52022
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA52024
WyarnoWYOMING52024
KayceeWYOMING52022
Two DotMONTANA42024
WinnettMONTANA42023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.