BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gadwall In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauWaterfowl

Gadwall in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 873% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+873%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gadwall has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 873% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Gadwall In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gadwall in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 127% by 2030 — from 0.55 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.58–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+127%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.58–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±91.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gadwall in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 127% by 2030 — from 0.55 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.58–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.521.8
20271.20.531.8
20281.20.551.9
20291.20.571.9
20301.20.581.9

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Gadwall in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rio Grnds RsCOLORADO482024
VernalUTAH312016
Cochetopa PassCOLORADO262025
M Warner ResUTAH122025
BrookhurstWYOMING112013
Stinking Lk.NEW-MEXICO101996
Navajo LakeUTAH102025
DinosaurCOLORADO92025
Blackhead PkCOLORADO81996
Stillwater PassCOLORADO82007
DulceNEW-MEXICO82025
Wellington 2UTAH82011
Weston PassCOLORADO52000
PowderhornCOLORADO52019
Sybille CynWYOMING52014
SawmillARIZONA42014
GuffeyCOLORADO42025
CortezCOLORADO42007
BasinCOLORADO42010
GallinasNEW-MEXICO42012
CapulinNEW-MEXICO41993
JensenUTAH42023
FerronUTAH42013
AltonUTAH42010
BufordWYOMING42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.