BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Fox Sparrow Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

Fox Sparrow in Utah has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

-46%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Fox Sparrow Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Fox Sparrow in Utah. See the full index history below.

Fox Sparrow Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Fox Sparrow in Utah is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 0.35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Fox Sparrow in Utah is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 0.35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.270.000.67
20270.270.000.67
20280.270.000.67
20290.260.000.67
20300.260.000.66

Fox Sparrow Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Fox Sparrow in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Uintah Nf1319941990
Woodruff1020252005
Lost Cr. Res720151995
Logan Canyon520192000
Soapstone420251992
Hardware Ranch420231994
Gooseberry320252013
Ferron320252000
Moon Lake 2120232006
Hyrum119791975
Saleratus Cr120111997
Beaver119821979
Randolph120251997
Skyline Driv120251986
Beck 2120061996
Hanna120231997
Heber Mtn.120251996
Ant Flat-Ogden Can120251995
Wasatch Nf120242001
Fish Lake Nf120242024
Main Canyon119931993

Fox Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemontananevadaoregonwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.