BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Fox Sparrow In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Fox Sparrow in Great Basin has held roughly steady: up 9% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+9%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Fox Sparrow in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Fox Sparrow In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Fox Sparrow in Great Basin is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 0.82 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.53Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Fox Sparrow in Great Basin is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 0.82 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.540.001.1
20260.540.001.1
20270.540.001.1
20280.530.001.1
20290.530.001.1

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Fox Sparrow in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Davis LakeOREGON382024
Magic MtnIDAHO242024
Wizard FallsOREGON182024
BartleCALIFORNIA142021
Crowder FlatCALIFORNIA122018
HawthorneNEVADA122001
SistersOREGON102024
Crowley LakeCALIFORNIA72017
Ruby ValleyNEVADA72001
AustinNEVADA62018
MacdoelCALIFORNIA51993
Silver CityIDAHO52024
Medicine Mtn.CALIFORNIA42015
Humboldt NfNEVADA42019
Dell SpringOREGON41996
Bly 2OREGON42024
PauninaOREGON42024
Hardware RanchUTAH42023
E. Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON42024
Deep SpringsCALIFORNIA32022
NighthawkWASHINGTON31992
Davis CreekCALIFORNIA21984
HackamoreCALIFORNIA22010
SquirrelIDAHO22005
BatesIDAHO22005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.