BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Fox Sparrow In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Fox Sparrow in Northern Pacific Rainforest has increased: up 46% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+46%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Fox Sparrow in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Fox Sparrow In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Fox Sparrow in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 107% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 2.7–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+107%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–6.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Fox Sparrow in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 107% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 2.7–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.62.56.6
20274.62.66.6
20284.72.66.7
20294.72.76.8
20304.82.76.8

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Fox Sparrow in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Copper RiverALASKA1022011
Thompson PasALASKA612025
YakutatALASKA372025
Sheep MtnALASKA272025
South Fork MtnCALIFORNIA272022
Chichagof IsALASKA232024
HopeALASKA202025
Harlequin L.ALASKA202024
Pilot CreekCALIFORNIA191996
SewardALASKA171992
HoonahALASKA132024
Alpenglow (Short)ALASKA132012
PetersburgALASKA121987
Sitka (Short)ALASKA121992
Elmendorf (Short)ALASKA111985
Moose PassALASKA101992
DirigioCALIFORNIA102014
Stikine RiverALASKA92024
GazelleCALIFORNIA81996
Yakutat (Short)ALASKA61984
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA62019
RuchOREGON61995
Thorne BayALASKA52010
Kuiu IslandALASKA52010
Lonesome RdgCALIFORNIA52014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.