BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Fox Sparrow In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Forest birds

Fox Sparrow in BCR 2 has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-33%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Fox Sparrow in BCR 2. See the full index history below.

Fox Sparrow In BCR 2 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Fox Sparrow in BCR 2 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 55 (95% range 8.5–101). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.5–10195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Fox Sparrow in BCR 2 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 55 (95% range 8.5–101). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026558.5101
2027558.5101
2028558.5101
2029558.5101
2030558.5101

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Fox Sparrow in BCR 2.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChiniakALASKA1772025
Kodiak 2ALASKA1432025
KodiakALASKA1071984
Gweek RiverALASKA782002
St. Mary'SALASKA682014
NomeALASKA632023
TupuknukALASKA521995
Salmon LakeALASKA492024
CouncilALASKA442024
DillinghamALASKA392019
Selawik (Short)ALASKA361987
Dillingham (Short)ALASKA311984
TellerALASKA202024
Kugarak (Short)ALASKA171987
Cape NomeALASKA152024
King SalmonALASKA92025
Cold BayALASKA72025
Kotzebue (Short)ALASKA61994
Katmai N.P.ALASKA32025
Togiak RiverALASKA32005
Kanektok RivALASKA32005
KotzebueALASKA12025
Goodnews BayALASKA12005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.